Economic Downturn Stress-Test Calculator

Enter your property figures below. Results update automatically when all required figures are valid; no sign-in or AI analysis is needed.

Property today

Use current rents and recurring monthly costs. Enter zero for an item that does not apply.

Monthly rent at 100% occupancy ($)

Current vacancy / collection loss (%)

Monthly operating expenses ($)

Monthly capital / repair allowance ($)

Financing

Model a fully amortizing loan. Enter a zero balance for a debt-free property; otherwise enter the current annual rate and remaining amortization.

Current loan balance ($)

Current annual interest rate (%)

Remaining amortization (months)

Model higher-rate refinancing in the stressed scenario.Off: keep the modeled current loan payment. On: apply the entered rate increase immediately, with the same balance and amortization.

Your downside scenario

Adjust the hypothetical starting percentages. Vacancy is the total stressed loss, not an increase over today’s rate; a 2-point rate increase means 5% becomes 7%.

Rent decline (%)

Stressed vacancy / collection loss (%)

Operating expense increase (%)

Refinancing rate increase (percentage points)

One-time stressed repair / expense ($)

Liquidity and duration

Enter cash actually available for this property and how many months the stressed conditions last. The one-time stressed expense is paid at the start.

Available cash reserves ($)

Scenario duration (months)

Baseline vs. stressed scenario

Enter monthly rent, operating expenses, loan balance (zero if none), and cash reserves. Complete the loan terms if financed, and correct any highlighted figures to see the comparison.

How to read this model

Assumptions, not forecasts. The stress percentages and 12-month duration are editable hypothetical starting points, not claims about today’s market. Figures are calculated locally and are not submitted to our team.

Collected rent = full-occupancy monthly rent × (1 − rent decline) × (1 − vacancy / collection loss). Stressed vacancy replaces, rather than adds to, current vacancy.
NOI = collected rent − operating expenses. Include property taxes, insurance, management, routine maintenance, and other recurring operating costs. Do not include loan payments or the separate capital allowance twice.
Cash flow = NOI − loan principal and interest − monthly capital allowance. Break-even occupancy covers those costs; a result above 100% cannot be reached with the modeled rent alone.
DSCR = NOI ÷ debt service, excluding the capital allowance. 1.00× means NOI equals the modeled loan payment; it is not a lender approval threshold. With no debt, DSCR is not applicable.
Loan payments use fixed-rate, fully amortizing monthly payments on the entered balance and remaining amortization. A higher rate applies immediately throughout the stressed period only when refinancing is selected, using the same balance and amortization. Existing fixed-rate payments do not rise solely because market rates rise.
Reserves needed = one-time stressed expense + monthly cash-flow deficit × duration. The one-time expense occurs at the start; positive cash flow is not used to offset it. Runway uses reserves remaining after that expense. This is a liquidity floor for the selected scenario, not a complete reserve recommendation.

Flat monthly conditions are assumed. Dollar amounts display rounded to the nearest dollar; calculations use unrounded values. Treat the one-time stressed expense as additional to the recurring capital allowance, not the same cost twice. Income taxes, 1031 gain deferral, sale prices, appreciation, refinance fees, balloon payments, interest-only loans, and changing conditions over time are not modeled. Tax deferral alone does not make a replacement property a sound investment.

Educational illustration, not investment, lending, legal, or tax advice. Review actual leases, costs, loan terms, and liquidity with your advisors. Legal disclaimer

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